BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruddy Duck In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Northern Rockies has surged: up 271% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+271%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruddy Duck in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Ruddy Duck In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.21 (95% range 0.10–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.21 (95% range 0.10–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.200.090.31
20270.200.090.32
20280.200.090.32
20290.210.090.32
20300.210.100.32

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NaplesIDAHO142025
Carter 2WYOMING142025
Saleratus CrUTAH132018
Neponset ResUTAH112018
Hunter PeakWYOMING82010
MadrasOREGON62022
SeedskadeeWYOMING52015
BeaverheadMONTANA31996
Red RockMONTANA32019
LamontWYOMING32004
PathfinderWYOMING32022
Mtn ViewWYOMING31991
Rock RiverWYOMING32016
PolsonMONTANA21996
Wise RiverMONTANA22006
Willow Creek 2MONTANA22025
ChewelahWASHINGTON22016
Omak CreekWASHINGTON22024
LaurierWASHINGTON22017
L Pend O NwrWASHINGTON22024
Ne EntranceWYOMING22024
NowoodWYOMING22024
MammothWYOMING22025
KalispellMONTANA12002
AugustaMONTANA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.