BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Fulvous Whistling-Duck

AnatidaeWaterfowlDendrocygna bicolor

Fulvous Whistling-Duck has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+103%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Fulvous Whistling-Duck

The Fulvous Whistling-Duck (Dendrocygna bicolor) is a North American member of the Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl (Anatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the waterfowl.

Size
12–43.5 in long (30–110 cm) — a medium to large waterfowl (typical for the family)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Aquatic plants, seeds and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface or dived for.
Range
Recorded on 62 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 4 states, most concentrated in the Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl

Notable Fulvous Whistling-Duck TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Fulvous Whistling-Duck. See the full index history below.

Fulvous Whistling-Duck Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Fulvous Whistling-Duck is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.13 (95% range 0.03–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±129.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±129.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Fulvous Whistling-Duck is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.13 (95% range 0.03–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±129.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.030.21
20260.120.030.21
20270.120.030.21
20280.120.030.21
20290.130.030.22

Where the Fulvous Whistling-Duck Is Detected

BBS routes recording Fulvous Whistling-Duck, sized by most recent count.

Fulvous Whistling-Duck Population Trend by State

Fulvous Whistling-Duck population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Californiainsufficient datan/a3
Florida-5%19896
Louisiana+730%197021
Texas+29%196932

Fulvous Whistling-Duck Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Fulvous Whistling-Duck population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Peninsular Florida-10%19896
Tamaulipan Brushlands-23%19716
Gulf Coastal Prairie+137%196938

Fulvous Whistling-Duck Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 103% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.