BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Fulvous Whistling-Duck Population Trend in Florida

All statesWaterfowl

Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Florida has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

-17%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Fulvous Whistling-Duck Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Florida. See the full index history below.

Fulvous Whistling-Duck Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Florida is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Florida is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.000.32
20270.080.000.32
20280.080.000.32
20290.080.000.32
20300.070.000.31

Fulvous Whistling-Duck Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano 22820102004
Shawano520021987
Holey Land520251995
Indiantown320071993
Corbett219991996
Devils Gardn220242024

Fulvous Whistling-Duck Population Trend in Other States

californialouisianatexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.