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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Fulvous Whistling-Duck Population Trend in Texas

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Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Texas has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Fulvous Whistling-Duck Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Texas. See the full index history below.

Fulvous Whistling-Duck Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Texas is projected to rise about 300% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+300%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.96Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Texas is projected to rise about 300% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.930.001.9
20260.940.001.9
20270.940.001.9
20280.950.001.9
20290.960.001.9

Fulvous Whistling-Duck Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola Beach 23820232010
Bayside2920032002
Progreso2420081995
Campbellton2120172017
Heidelberg2120232013
Rock Island1420231967
Bayside 21320041997
Winnie1120241979
Petronila1020191968
Goliad Prairie1020122011
Stowell1020211984
Kingsville820191979
Moon Lake 2620242019
Bayside 3620242005
Chinquapin520231999
Mount Zion420241994
Raymondville420241969
Hinkles Fer320102010
Loyola Beach320091994
Sejita320212010
Port Acres320241994
Indianola220231967
Danbury220181977
Katy220241968
Oyster Lake220221998

Fulvous Whistling-Duck Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.