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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Fulvous Whistling-Duck Population Trend in Louisiana

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Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Louisiana has surged: up 730% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+730%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Fulvous Whistling-Duck Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Fulvous Whistling-Duck has surged in Louisiana: up 730% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Fulvous Whistling-Duck Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Louisiana is projected to rise about 180% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±190.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+180%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±190.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Louisiana is projected to rise about 180% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±190.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.20.007.1
20263.30.007.1
20273.30.007.2
20283.40.007.2
20293.40.007.3

Fulvous Whistling-Duck Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Woodlawn3820212008
Richard1520241998
Ltl Chenier 21520112011
Forked Island 21320112010
Kaplan1320231998
Ltl Chenier1320241986
Maurice1120241988
Ville Platte920191988
Esther620241988
Forked Island520242008
Natchez520232023
Vinton 2420222011
Sabine Nwr 2420152009
Shaw320032003
Sabine Nwr320081989
Gran Chenier219751970
Hackberry220141990
De Quincy220152005
Rayville 2220232023
Keystone120062000
Mamou119821968

Fulvous Whistling-Duck Population Trend in Other States

californiafloridatexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.