BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Fulvous Whistling-Duck In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWaterfowl

Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Peninsular Florida has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

-20%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Fulvous Whistling-Duck In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±106.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.000.51
20270.120.000.51
20280.120.000.51
20290.110.000.50
20300.110.000.50

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Fulvous Whistling-Duck in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano 2FLORIDA282010
ShawanoFLORIDA52002
Holey LandFLORIDA52025
IndiantownFLORIDA32007
Devils GardnFLORIDA22024
CorbettFLORIDA21999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.