BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Goldeneye

AnatidaeWaterfowlBucephala clangula

Common Goldeneye has surged: up 533% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+533%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Common Goldeneye

The Common Goldeneye (Bucephala clangula) is a North American member of the Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl (Anatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the waterfowl.

Size
12–43.5 in long (30–110 cm) — a medium to large waterfowl (typical for the family)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Aquatic plants, seeds and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface or dived for.
Range
Recorded on 126 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 14 states, most concentrated in the BCR 4.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl

Notable Common Goldeneye TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Goldeneye. See the full index history below.

Common Goldeneye Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Goldeneye is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.01–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Goldeneye is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.01–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.010.04
20260.020.010.04
20270.030.010.04
20280.030.010.04
20290.030.010.04

Where the Common Goldeneye Is Detected

BBS routes recording Common Goldeneye, sized by most recent count.

Common Goldeneye Population Trend by State

Common Goldeneye population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-21%198647
Californiainsufficient datan/a2
Idaho-92%19805
Maine-93%198315
Michiganinsufficient datan/a2
Minnesota+180%198314
Montana-77%197914
New Hampshireinsufficient datan/a2
New Yorkinsufficient datan/a1
North Dakotainsufficient datan/a2
Vermontinsufficient datan/a1
Washington+51%199411
Wisconsininsufficient datan/a3
Wyominginsufficient datan/a7

Common Goldeneye Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Common Goldeneye population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-76%19958
BCR 4-4%198634
Northern Pacific Rainforest-15%19945
Great Basin-81%198611
Northern Rockies-72%198023
Prairie Potholes+40%19864
Boreal Hardwood Transition+92%197918
Atlantic Northern Forest-84%197718

Common Goldeneye Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 533% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.