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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Goldeneye In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Common Goldeneye in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+92%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Goldeneye has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Common Goldeneye In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Goldeneye in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Goldeneye in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.050.000.10
20240.050.000.10
20250.050.000.10
20260.050.000.11
20270.050.000.11

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Common Goldeneye in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA42018
Tamarac NwrMINNESOTA41993
BlackduckMINNESOTA32019
GlendaleMINNESOTA32013
PickfordMICHIGAN21979
CohassetMINNESOTA22018
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA22018
Washington IWISCONSIN21999
HermanMICHIGAN12022
HovlandMINNESOTA12022
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA11979
DebsMINNESOTA11990
Crane LakeMINNESOTA12022
LudeMINNESOTA12007
BigforkMINNESOTA12003
BagleyMINNESOTA12004
NebishMINNESOTA12013
CouderayWISCONSIN12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.