BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Goldeneye In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Waterfowl

Common Goldeneye in BCR 4 has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-4%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Goldeneye in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Goldeneye in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Goldeneye in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.850.002.3
20260.860.002.3
20270.860.002.3
20280.870.002.3
20290.870.002.3

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Common Goldeneye in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mud RiverALASKA182024
Anvik RiverALASKA162024
Unalakleet RiverALASKA102024
Nicholai SlALASKA82024
Birch LakeALASKA52018
Kanuti CanynALASKA42024
CottonwoodALASKA41990
ChistochinaALASKA32022
Bear CreekALASKA31991
Donelly DomeALASKA32024
CohoeALASKA22016
KachemakALASKA22023
Hather CreekALASKA22024
Porcupine R.ALASKA21993
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA21997
Nabesna RoadALASKA22010
CircleALASKA12024
Chatanika RALASKA12017
SlanaALASKA12015
MonahanALASKA12021
HomerALASKA11982
Kenny LakeALASKA12022
SourdoughALASKA11997
Hatcher PassALASKA12023
Swan Lake RdALASKA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.