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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Goldeneye Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWaterfowl

Common Goldeneye in Minnesota has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+29%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Goldeneye Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Goldeneye in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Common Goldeneye Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Common Goldeneye in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Goldeneye in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.13
20270.060.000.13
20280.060.000.13
20290.060.000.13
20300.060.000.13

Common Goldeneye Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Common Goldeneye in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tamarac Nwr419931993
Wigwam Bay420182018
Blackduck320192011
Glendale320131993
Cohasset220182002
Sawbill Camp220181997
Lockport120252025
Sawbill Lndg119791979
Debs119901990
Bigfork120032003
Crane Lake120221969
Bagley120041996
Lude120072007
Nebish120131983
Hovland120222004

Common Goldeneye Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaidahomainemichiganmontananew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotavermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.