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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Goldeneye Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWaterfowl

Common Goldeneye in Minnesota has surged: up 180% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+180%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Goldeneye Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Goldeneye has surged in Minnesota: up 180% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Common Goldeneye Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Common Goldeneye in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Goldeneye in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.060.000.14
20240.060.000.14
20250.060.000.14
20260.060.000.14
20270.060.000.14

Common Goldeneye Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Common Goldeneye in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tamarac Nwr419931993
Wigwam Bay420182018
Blackduck320192011
Glendale320131993
Cohasset220182002
Sawbill Camp220181997
Sawbill Lndg119791979
Debs119901990
Bigfork120032003
Crane Lake120221969
Bagley120041996
Lude120072007
Nebish120131983
Hovland120222004

Common Goldeneye Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaidahomainemichiganmontananew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotavermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.