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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Goldeneye Population Trend in Alaska

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Common Goldeneye in Alaska has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-21%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Goldeneye Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Goldeneye in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Common Goldeneye Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Common Goldeneye in Alaska is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.95 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Goldeneye in Alaska is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.95 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.510.001.4
20260.510.001.4
20270.510.001.4
20280.510.001.4
20290.510.001.4

Common Goldeneye Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Common Goldeneye in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mud River1820241993
Anvik River1620241998
Yakutat1120042000
Unalakleet River1020242000
Nicholai Sl820241994
Togiak River720052000
Cape Nome620121997
Gweek River620021994
Birch Lake520182000
Cordova520211994
Kanuti Canyn420241995
Cottonwood419901989
Chistochina320221991
Donelly Dome320242007
Dillingham320102001
Kanektok Riv320041995
Bear Creek319911986
Nabesna Road220102010
Hather Creek220241994
Porcupine R.219931993
Ft. Richrdsn219971997
Thompson Pas220142002
Kachemak220232005
Cohoe220162016
Circle120242022

Common Goldeneye Population Trend in Other States

californiaidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotavermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.