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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Goldeneye In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestWaterfowl

Common Goldeneye in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-84%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Goldeneye has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Common Goldeneye In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Goldeneye in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Goldeneye in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.000.000.07
20200.000.000.07
20210.000.000.07
20220.000.000.07
20230.000.000.07

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Common Goldeneye in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Forest StaMAINE91967
St DavidMAINE42004
WashburnMAINE32005
CarrabassettMAINE11993
BaxterMAINE11984
Seboomook LkMAINE12013
GreenvilleMAINE11987
MedwayMAINE12018
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE11990
Clayton LakeMAINE11998
Horse MtnMAINE11990
Weeks BrookMAINE12003
NesowadnehunMAINE11992
Heron LakeMAINE11983
Lake MoxieMAINE12011
StratfordNEW-HAMPSHIRE12014
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE11981
Horseshoe L.NEW-YORK11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.