BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Wigeon

AnatidaeWaterfowlMareca americana

American Wigeon has surged: up 295% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+295%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
456RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the American Wigeon

The American Wigeon (Mareca americana) is a North American member of the Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl (Anatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the waterfowl.

Size
12–43.5 in long (30–110 cm) — a medium to large waterfowl (typical for the family)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Aquatic plants, seeds and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface or dived for.
Range
Recorded on 456 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 21 states, most concentrated in the Great Basin.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl

Notable American Wigeon TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Wigeon. See the full index history below.

American Wigeon Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon is projected to rise about 103% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.10–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+103%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±112.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon is projected to rise about 103% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.10–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.090.33
20260.210.090.33
20270.210.090.33
20280.210.100.33
20290.220.100.34

Where the American Wigeon Is Detected

BBS routes recording American Wigeon, sized by most recent count.

American Wigeon Population Trend by State

American Wigeon population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska+246%198482
California-75%197319
Colorado-5%197927
Idaho-18%197725
Kansasinsufficient datan/a2
Michiganinsufficient datan/a1
Minnesotainsufficient datan/a6
Montana-49%197159
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a6
Nevada-44%199210
New Mexicoinsufficient datan/a6
North Dakota-39%196942
Ohioinsufficient datan/a2
Oregon+79%197222
Pennsylvaniainsufficient datan/a1
South Dakota-49%196936
Texasinsufficient datan/a3
Utah-7%199519
Washington-57%197720
Wisconsininsufficient datan/a2
Wyoming-15%197166

American Wigeon Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

American Wigeon population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-71%198621
BCR 4+224%198547
Northern Pacific Rainforest+61%198511
Great Basin+88%197279
Northern Rockies-46%197478
Prairie Potholes-3%196968
Boreal Hardwood Transition-48%19834
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-55%197729
Badlands and Prairies+96%196979
Shortgrass Prairie-50%198618

American Wigeon Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 295% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.