BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Wigeon Population Trend in Utah

All statesWaterfowl

American Wigeon in Utah has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-7%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Wigeon Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Wigeon in Utah. See the full index history below.

American Wigeon Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in Utah is projected to rise about 190% by 2027 — from 0.18 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±604.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+190%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±604.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in Utah is projected to rise about 190% by 2027 — from 0.18 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±604.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.520.001.1
20240.520.001.1
20250.530.001.1
20260.530.001.1
20270.530.001.1

American Wigeon Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording American Wigeon in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Saleratus Cr1620181995
Vernal1420121999
Randolph820212009
Gold Hill720151997
M Warner Res520221995
Neponset Res420181995
Lynn420131998
Bear River320222005
Delta320052000
Callao220172003
Skyline Driv220071988
Beck 2220052000
Ant Flat-Ogden Can220192018
Timpie Spg119811981
E. Bear Lake120221997
Logan Canyon120042004
Snowville120152015
Ferron120222001
Green River120152015

American Wigeon Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexaswashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.