BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Wigeon Population Trend in Washington

All statesWaterfowl

American Wigeon in Washington has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-57%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Wigeon Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Wigeon has fallen sharply in Washington: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

American Wigeon Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in Washington is projected to rise about 158% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±459.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+158%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±459.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in Washington is projected to rise about 158% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±459.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.000.95
20260.160.000.95
20270.150.000.94
20280.140.000.93
20290.140.000.93

American Wigeon Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording American Wigeon in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rimrock620232015
Turnbull Nwr420131998
Chewelah319901990
L Pend O Nwr320162016
Brewster220121977
Selah220042004
Moses Lake219821977
Columbia Nwr220212018
Wapato219881988
Cusick220051990
Wilbur219871987
Nighthawk220241999
Curlew220001998
Keystone220181999
Harrington120001980
Reardan120181971
Connell119741974
Tonasket120001983
Omak Creek120242009
Odessa119981998

American Wigeon Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.