BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Wigeon Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWaterfowl

American Wigeon in Oregon has surged: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+79%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Wigeon Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Wigeon has surged in Oregon: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

American Wigeon Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in Oregon is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in Oregon is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.000.51
20260.190.000.52
20270.190.000.52
20280.190.000.52
20290.190.000.52

American Wigeon Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording American Wigeon in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Catlow Rim2420241994
Fish Lake2020241972
Princeton1519811972
Clover Creek519891989
Merrill520052005
Blizzard Gap419941985
Warner Vally420231994
Green Mtn.319971997
Sparta219941992
Barnes Val219731973
Harney Lake220001993
Sheaville220122012
Flook Lake220121996
Three Forks120052005
Zumwalt119981998
Malheur Nwr119911988
Modoc Point119711971
Willow Spg119691969
Adair120211997
Joseph119871987
Bly119921992
Chinchalo120172017

American Wigeon Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.