BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Wigeon Population Trend in Idaho

All statesWaterfowl

American Wigeon in Idaho has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-61%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Wigeon Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Wigeon has fallen sharply in Idaho: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

American Wigeon Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in Idaho is projected to rise about 103% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+103%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in Idaho is projected to rise about 103% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.300.001.1
20270.300.001.1
20280.300.001.1
20290.290.001.1
20300.290.001.1

American Wigeon Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording American Wigeon in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron Springs820241988
Crane Creek620021995
Naples520251988
Craters519871987
Salmon River519981998
Blackft Res220181984
Mivoden219801980
Kyle Canyon219971997
Cascade219841978
Cape Horn219971993
Henry219811975
Picabo220151991
Mud Lake220071992
Bates220221990
Preston220232023
Cabarton220231985
Sawtooth Cty220052004
Pasadena Val219921990
Challis119761976
Blacks Creek119811981
Centerville119971997
Springfield119861986
Featherville120232023
Dougal Res119981998
Daniels Res119911991

American Wigeon Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradokansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.