BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Wigeon Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

American Wigeon in North Dakota has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Wigeon Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Wigeon has fallen sharply in North Dakota: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Wigeon Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in North Dakota is projected to rise about 212% by 2030 — from 0.37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+212%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in North Dakota is projected to rise about 212% by 2030 — from 0.37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.002.8
20271.10.002.8
20281.20.002.8
20291.20.002.8
20301.20.002.8

American Wigeon Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording American Wigeon in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Danzig1620141982
Webster820101999
Gorham820161976
Cooperstown320231969
Lakota320061970
Tobacco320172017
Bentley320141991
Douglas Crk320241987
Turtle Mtns319971980
Edgeley220251980
Lake George220221967
Wimbledon220181996
Buchanan220251967
Dunn Center220221968
Golva220181999
Wild Rose220251982
Sheyenne Lk220251980
Montpelier220111998
Lakota 2220142010
Solen220142014
Forman120241969
Carson120191999
Kempton120161967
Emerado120061992
Horsehead Lk120241981

American Wigeon Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexicoohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.