BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Wigeon Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

American Wigeon in Alaska has surged: up 246% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+246%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Wigeon Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Wigeon has surged in Alaska: up 246% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

American Wigeon Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in Alaska is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.21–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±128.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in Alaska is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.21–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.60.174.9
20262.60.185.0
20272.60.195.0
20282.60.205.0
20292.60.215.0

American Wigeon Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording American Wigeon in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cape Nome5020171993
Monahan2720171986
Anchor River2319951995
Kalifonsky1720162014
Hather Creek1720241993
Bear Creek1519911986
Kanuti Canyn1520241994
Nicholai Sl1420241993
Cordova1320241983
Selawik (Short)1219871986
Gweek River1220021994
Kotzebue (Short)1119941986
Porcupine R.1120021993
Kobuk River (Short)1019921991
Maclaren820221982
Mud River820241993
Kanuti Lake820242006
Tupuknuk719951995
Kodiak 2620181985
Pinoche Tral (Short)619841984
Chena River519881988
Sheep Mtn520111983
Kugarak (Short)519871986
Unalakleet River520241997
Kanektok Riv520042004

American Wigeon Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahokansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.