BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Wigeon In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

American Wigeon in Prairie Potholes has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-3%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Wigeon in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

American Wigeon In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.83Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.820.001.7
20260.820.001.7
20270.820.001.7
20280.830.001.7
20290.830.001.7

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording American Wigeon in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA162014
Hay LakeMONTANA152019
ShelbyMONTANA112019
SunburstMONTANA102007
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA82010
MaltaMONTANA62024
GlyndonMINNESOTA51979
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA52024
ChinookMONTANA42023
Ester LakeMONTANA42024
Sun RiverMONTANA42019
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA41986
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA41984
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA41997
GryglaMINNESOTA31989
VirgelleMONTANA32024
GlasgowMONTANA32024
WhitlashMONTANA32018
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA32023
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA32006
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA32024
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA32024
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA31997
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA32019
OswegoMONTANA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.