BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Wigeon In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWaterfowl

American Wigeon in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+96%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Wigeon has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Wigeon In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.740.001.6
20260.740.001.6
20270.730.001.6
20280.730.001.6
20290.730.001.6

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording American Wigeon in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA282021
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA102013
HighlightWYOMING91991
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA82016
WyarnoWYOMING82019
NatronaWYOMING71992
Two DotMONTANA62024
BrandenbergMONTANA62019
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA52000
BillWYOMING52000
RiverviewWYOMING52022
HighwoodMONTANA42017
RoyMONTANA42023
ShawmutMONTANA42024
Fort PierreSOUTH-DAKOTA42018
HayesSOUTH-DAKOTA42021
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA42021
UptonWYOMING42024
FlatwillowMONTANA31991
IngomarMONTANA32024
Wheat BasinMONTANA32023
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA32017
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA32014
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA32011
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.