BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Wigeon In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Waterfowl

American Wigeon in BCR 4 has surged: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+79%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Wigeon has surged in BCR 4: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

American Wigeon In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 13× by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.00–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±412.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

13×Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±412.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 13× by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.00–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±412.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.90.006.8
20272.90.006.8
20282.90.006.8
20292.90.006.7
20302.90.006.7

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording American Wigeon in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MonahanALASKA272017
Anchor RiverALASKA231995
KalifonskyALASKA172016
Hather CreekALASKA172024
Bear CreekALASKA151991
Kanuti CanynALASKA152024
Porcupine R.ALASKA112002
Kobuk River (Short)ALASKA101992
MaclarenALASKA82022
Mud RiverALASKA82024
Kanuti LakeALASKA82024
Pinoche Tral (Short)ALASKA61984
Chena RiverALASKA51988
Unalakleet RiverALASKA52024
Tangle LakesALASKA41987
Anvik RiverALASKA42024
SlanaALASKA32024
Nicholai SlALASKA32025
PetersvilleALASKA32000
KuskulanaALASKA32023
Birch LakeALASKA22023
HomerALASKA21982
L SalchaALASKA21999
Kenny LakeALASKA22025
SourdoughALASKA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.