BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Wigeon In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Waterfowl

American Wigeon in BCR 2 has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-71%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Wigeon has fallen sharply in BCR 2: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 14× by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±524.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

14×Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±524.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Wigeon in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 14× by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±524.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.10.008.5
20263.10.008.5
20273.10.008.5
20283.10.008.5
20293.10.008.5

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording American Wigeon in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cape NomeALASKA502017
Gweek RiverALASKA122002
Selawik (Short)ALASKA121987
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA111994
TupuknukALASKA71995
Kodiak 2ALASKA62018
Kanektok RivALASKA52004
Kugarak (Short)ALASKA51987
KodiakALASKA31983
Togiak RiverALASKA22003
Goodnews BayALASKA22002
Katmai N.P.ALASKA12019
ChiniakALASKA12024
Cold BayALASKA12009
King SalmonALASKA12022
CouncilALASKA12012
NomeALASKA12011
Salmon LakeALASKA12012
St. Mary'SALASKA11998
KotzebueALASKA12024
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA11991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.