BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mute Swan

AnatidaeWaterfowlCygnus olor

Mute Swan has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Mute Swan

The Mute Swan (Cygnus olor) is a North American member of the Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl (Anatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the waterfowl.

Size
12–43.5 in long (30–110 cm) — a medium to large waterfowl (typical for the family)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Aquatic plants, seeds and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface or dived for.
Range
Recorded on 114 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 18 states, most concentrated in the New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl

Notable Mute Swan TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mute Swan. See the full index history below.

Mute Swan Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mute Swan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mute Swan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.07
20260.030.000.07
20270.030.000.07
20280.030.000.07
20290.030.000.07

Where the Mute Swan Is Detected

BBS routes recording Mute Swan, sized by most recent count.

Mute Swan Population Trend by State

Mute Swan population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Californiainsufficient datan/a2
Connecticut+11%19798
Delawareinsufficient datan/a2
Illinoisinsufficient datan/a5
Indiana+176%20027
Kentuckyinsufficient datan/a1
Maryland+73%19926
Massachusetts+93%198111
Michigan-25%197926
Minnesotainsufficient datan/a1
New Hampshireinsufficient datan/a1
New Jersey-82%197211
New York-42%196813
Ohioinsufficient datan/a3
Pennsylvania+47%198412
Rhode Islandinsufficient datan/a1
Virginiainsufficient datan/a1
Wisconsininsufficient datan/a3

Mute Swan Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Mute Swan population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Boreal Hardwood Transition+9%19796
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-61%19946
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+19%20038
Prairie Hardwood Transition-8%198028
Appalachian Mountains-12%197519
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+1%196839

Mute Swan Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 57% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.