BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mute Swan In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWaterfowl

Mute Swan in Appalachian Mountains has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-12%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mute Swan in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mute Swan in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mute Swan in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.020.000.05
20250.020.000.05
20260.020.000.05
20270.020.000.05
20280.020.000.05

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Mute Swan in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MiddletownNEW-YORK101990
MidvaleNEW-JERSEY41999
MedusaNEW-YORK42018
ClearfieldPENNSYLVANIA42016
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA32023
HopeNEW-JERSEY21992
High PointNEW-JERSEY22004
RamseysburgNEW-JERSEY22010
SomersNEW-YORK21976
WestbrookvleNEW-YORK22017
Warwick 2NEW-YORK22012
WakenaPENNSYLVANIA22023
Wild CreekPENNSYLVANIA22001
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY12016
DoverNEW-JERSEY12016
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA11990
New RinggoldPENNSYLVANIA12015
ElizabethvilPENNSYLVANIA12008
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.