BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mute Swan Population Trend in Indiana

All statesWaterfowl

Mute Swan in Indiana has surged: up 176% on the route-weighted index since 2002.

+176%Since 2002TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mute Swan Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mute Swan has surged in Indiana: up 176% on the route-weighted index since 2002.

Mute Swan Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Mute Swan in Indiana is projected to rise about 165% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+165%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±152.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mute Swan in Indiana is projected to rise about 165% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19912029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.30
20260.140.000.30
20270.140.000.30
20280.140.000.30
20290.150.000.31

Mute Swan Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Mute Swan in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indiana Dune620181994
Ellis420101991
Packertown 2320242006
Portage120022002
Portage 2120182010
Lagrange120092009
Wabash120082008

Mute Swan Population Trend in Other States

californiaconnecticutdelawareillinoiskentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.