BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mute Swan Population Trend in New York

All statesWaterfowl

Mute Swan in New York has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mute Swan Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mute Swan has fallen sharply in New York: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mute Swan Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Mute Swan in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±562.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±562.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mute Swan in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±562.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.500.001.4
20270.510.001.4
20280.510.001.4
20290.510.001.4
20300.510.001.4

Mute Swan Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Mute Swan in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jones Beach1620061966
Purdy1120221981
Middletown1019901990
Huntington920231966
Medusa420182018
Bedford219801980
Somers219761970
Westbrookvle220172005
Warwick 2220121999
Westhampton120211967
Manorville119891989
Hopkinton120062006
Highland120091991
Dryden120252025

Mute Swan Population Trend in Other States

californiaconnecticutdelawareillinoisindianakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseyohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.