BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mute Swan Population Trend in Michigan

All statesWaterfowl

Mute Swan in Michigan has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-25%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mute Swan Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mute Swan in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Mute Swan Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Mute Swan in Michigan is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mute Swan in Michigan is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.70
20260.140.000.69
20270.140.000.69
20280.130.000.68
20290.120.000.67

Mute Swan Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Mute Swan in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coopersville420052005
Galesburg420241978
Herman319931990
Remus320131999
Chippewa Lk.220241994
Belding 2220122004
Lawrence220122009
Irons219891977
Skegemog Pt220112011
Belding220031995
Mottville220221999
Lapeer220112011
Rochester220162016
Hartland220111992
Holt220242024
Prattville220131995
Cohoctah220232022
Hamburg 2120172006
Allegan Wma120012001
Big Blue Lk120221986
Pleasant Val119941989
Nashville120181989
Howardsville120231992
Monterey120241978
Homer120142007

Mute Swan Population Trend in Other States

californiaconnecticutdelawareillinoisindianakentuckymarylandmassachusettsminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.