BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mute Swan In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWaterfowl

Mute Swan in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mute Swan in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Mute Swan In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mute Swan in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 376% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+376%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.50Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mute Swan in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 376% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.490.001.1
20260.490.001.1
20270.490.001.1
20280.500.001.1
20290.500.001.1

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Mute Swan in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jones BeachNEW-YORK162006
PurdyNEW-YORK112022
HuntingtonNEW-YORK92023
Six PointsNEW-JERSEY51998
BlackbirdDELAWARE42024
MysticCONNECTICUT31981
DanburyCONNECTICUT32019
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS31992
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY31968
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT22011
WestbrookCONNECTICUT21993
ShermanCONNECTICUT22007
GreenwichCONNECTICUT22018
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT21984
HarmonyMARYLAND21993
Golden HillMARYLAND22003
HongaMARYLAND22008
MadisonMARYLAND22008
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS21983
MarionMASSACHUSETTS22024
LittletonMASSACHUSETTS22011
MansfieldMASSACHUSETTS22016
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS22018
N. AndoverMASSACHUSETTS22024
Woodbury HgtNEW-JERSEY21998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.