BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mute Swan In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Mute Swan in Prairie Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-8%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mute Swan in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Mute Swan In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mute Swan in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mute Swan in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.37
20260.110.000.36
20270.110.000.36
20280.110.000.36
20290.100.000.36

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Mute Swan in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indiana DuneINDIANA62018
EllisINDIANA42010
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN42005
GalesburgMICHIGAN42024
Packertown 2INDIANA32024
RemusMICHIGAN32013
LawrenceMICHIGAN22012
BeldingMICHIGAN22003
MottvilleMICHIGAN22022
HoltMICHIGAN22024
PrattvilleMICHIGAN22013
CohoctahMICHIGAN22023
Belding 2MICHIGAN22012
LapeerMICHIGAN22011
RochesterMICHIGAN22016
HartlandMICHIGAN22011
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN22024
ManawaWISCONSIN22014
MukwonagoWISCONSIN22004
LagrangeINDIANA12009
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN12022
NashvilleMICHIGAN12018
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN12023
MontereyMICHIGAN12024
HomerMICHIGAN12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.