Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler

AnatidaeWaterfowlSpatula clypeata

Northern Shoveler has surged: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

About the Northern Shoveler

The Northern Shoveler (Spatula clypeata) is a North American member of the Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl (Anatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the waterfowl.

Size
12–43.5 in long (30–110 cm) — a medium to large waterfowl (typical for the family)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Aquatic plants, seeds and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface or dived for.
Range
Recorded on 546 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 25 states, most concentrated in the Prairie Potholes.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl

Notable Northern Shoveler TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has surged in surveyed states: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.12–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.12–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.110.42
20260.270.110.43
20270.270.120.43
20280.280.120.43
20290.280.120.43

Where the Northern Shoveler Is Detected

BBS routes recording Northern Shoveler, sized by most recent count.

Northern Shoveler Population Trend by State

Northern Shoveler population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-52%198345
California+20%197325
Colorado+42%197239
Delawareinsufficient datan/a1
Idaho-27%197921
Illinoisinsufficient datan/a1
Indianainsufficient datan/a1
Iowa+73%19785
Kansas+1%197012
Minnesota-64%197930
Missouriinsufficient datan/a1
Montana+43%197062
Nebraska-74%197128
Nevada+154%199511
New Mexico-70%197410
North Dakota+500%196948
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a5
Oregon+294%197828
Pennsylvaniainsufficient datan/a1
South Dakota-26%196947
Texas+27%197720
Utah+14%199118
Washington-24%197723
Wisconsin+20%197414
Wyoming+99%197250

Northern Shoveler Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Northern Shoveler population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-85%198910
BCR 4-51%198330
Northern Pacific Rainforest-25%198813
Great Basin+88%197482
Northern Rockies-33%197560
Prairie Potholes+213%196998
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-47%197123
Badlands and Prairies+25%196987
Shortgrass Prairie+64%197558
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-70%196927
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-51%19747
Prairie Hardwood Transition-53%197320
Coastal California+244%197711

Northern Shoveler Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 166% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.