BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Shoveler In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+95%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Northern Shoveler In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±135.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.290.000.89
20270.280.000.89
20280.280.000.89
20290.280.000.89
20300.280.000.89

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LeotiKANSAS352021
LakinKANSAS301990
BurlingtonCOLORADO152015
ChanningTEXAS151980
HookerOKLAHOMA142015
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO131979
NunnCOLORADO122008
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO122023
WakaTEXAS112021
HaswellCOLORADO102006
DalhartTEXAS92023
CactusTEXAS82025
LamarCOLORADO62023
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO61970
Wildhorse LCOLORADO52024
Sheridan LakCOLORADO51995
PantexTEXAS52025
FlaglerCOLORADO42009
KarvalCOLORADO42019
BereaNEBRASKA42015
ClovisNEW-MEXICO42018
YoderWYOMING42025
KiowaCOLORADO32018
Gordon CreekCOLORADO31996
AmherstCOLORADO32009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.