BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Shortgrass Prairie has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+64%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has risen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±157.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.000.90
20260.290.000.90
20270.290.000.90
20280.290.000.90
20290.280.000.90

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LeotiKANSAS352021
LakinKANSAS301990
BurlingtonCOLORADO152015
ChanningTEXAS151980
HookerOKLAHOMA142015
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO131979
NunnCOLORADO122008
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO122023
WakaTEXAS112021
HaswellCOLORADO102006
DalhartTEXAS92023
YoderWYOMING92024
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO82011
CactusTEXAS82023
LamarCOLORADO62023
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO61970
Wildhorse LCOLORADO52024
Sheridan LakCOLORADO51995
FlaglerCOLORADO42009
KarvalCOLORADO42019
BereaNEBRASKA42015
ClovisNEW-MEXICO42018
PantexTEXAS42023
KiowaCOLORADO32018
Gordon CreekCOLORADO31996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.