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Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Shoveler In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-44%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Shoveler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Northern Shoveler In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 65% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±184.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-65%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±184.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 65% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±184.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.58
20270.050.000.57
20280.040.000.56
20290.040.000.56
20300.030.000.55

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlbertKANSAS182019
NenzelNEBRASKA62021
WeinertTEXAS51988
BartleyNEBRASKA41979
ChildressTEXAS41994
KennedyNEBRASKA32017
KanopolisKANSAS22019
LeovilleKANSAS21977
BerwetKANSAS22009
SurpriseNEBRASKA22014
Piester LakeNEBRASKA22025
TableNEBRASKA22009
GordonNEBRASKA22025
RinggoldNEBRASKA22005
ArthurNEBRASKA22023
Crescent LkNEBRASKA22025
MullenNEBRASKA21990
BassettNEBRASKA22019
St JohnKANSAS12001
ChapmanKANSAS11979
MisslerKANSAS11980
KenesawNEBRASKA11979
KearneyNEBRASKA12008
Swan LakeNEBRASKA12025
BradyNEBRASKA11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.