BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has fallen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.58
20260.060.000.58
20270.050.000.57
20280.040.000.57
20290.040.000.56

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlbertKANSAS182019
NenzelNEBRASKA62021
WeinertTEXAS51988
BartleyNEBRASKA41979
GordonNEBRASKA42016
ChildressTEXAS41994
KennedyNEBRASKA32017
KanopolisKANSAS22019
LeovilleKANSAS21977
BerwetKANSAS22009
SurpriseNEBRASKA22014
Piester LakeNEBRASKA22018
TableNEBRASKA22009
RinggoldNEBRASKA22005
ArthurNEBRASKA22023
Crescent LkNEBRASKA22013
MullenNEBRASKA21990
BassettNEBRASKA22019
St JohnKANSAS12001
ChapmanKANSAS11979
MisslerKANSAS11980
KenesawNEBRASKA11979
KearneyNEBRASKA12008
Swan LakeNEBRASKA12022
BradyNEBRASKA11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.