BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Montana

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Montana has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+43%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Shoveler in Montana. See the full index history below.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Montana is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Montana is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.790.001.8
20260.800.001.8
20270.800.001.8
20280.800.001.8
20290.800.001.8

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Westby6020242015
Hay Lake1720191989
Brandenberg1420191971
Wheat Basin1120242018
Winifred920232023
Glasgow819821969
Great Falls820231972
Ingomar720231974
Wolf Point720232023
Sunburst620071968
Malta620241975
Willow Creek 2620221990
Pablo Res.619981998
Virgelle520241979
Harlem420111987
Polson420061989
Two Dot420241979
Shawmut420241979
Beaverhead420191973
Chinook420232016
Glen320172000
Savage319791979
Forsyth320221980
Powderville320241972
Glentana320232016

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourinebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.