BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-64%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Minnesota is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±217.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±217.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Minnesota is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±217.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.22
20260.050.000.22
20270.050.000.22
20280.050.000.22
20290.050.000.22

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chokio520141979
Lake Bronson520031979
Big Stone420011995
Huntley219931993
Dawson220061986
Knapp220021992
Badger220012001
Worthington220242024
Le Center220152015
New London220242001
Chokio North220111993
Warroad220162016
Hartland119991982
Sherburne Nr120022002
Courtland119851985
Cass Lake119931993
Princeton120042004
Osseo120171967
Appleton120102005
Gluek119811981
Backus119791979
Glyndon120081978
Tenney119951978
Erie119871984
Grygla120111978

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.