BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-52%Since 1983
45Routes In State
41Years

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in Alaska

long arc declinecomputed index

Northern Shoveler has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Alaska is projected to rise about 122% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+122%Change by 2029
0.30Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.9995% range
±92.1%Backtest error
19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.320.001.0
20260.320.001.0
20270.310.001.0
20280.300.001.0
20290.300.000.99

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Alaska.
Koyukuk Riv.1419951993
Selawik (Short)1319871987
Sheep Mtn1020041993
Kotzebue (Short)1019941986
Chena Hot Sp619901990
Monahan520171992
Anvik River520161998
Kanuti Canyn420162007
Petersville419981998
Nebesna319751975
Toklat320181997
Unalakleet River320242022
Paxson Lake219971996
Kuskulana220232018
Northway220072007
Council220052000
Salmon Lake220072005
Murphy Dome220062002
Kotzebue220232002
Kanuti Lake220242006
Kodiak 2220182018
Galena (Short)220241992
Goodnews Bay220052005
Circle119961996
Birch Lake120162008

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.