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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-52%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Alaska is projected to rise about 122% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+122%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Alaska is projected to rise about 122% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.001.0
20260.320.001.0
20270.310.001.0
20280.300.001.0
20290.300.000.99

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Koyukuk Riv.1419951993
Selawik (Short)1319871987
Sheep Mtn1020041993
Kotzebue (Short)1019941986
Chena Hot Sp619901990
Monahan520171992
Anvik River520161998
Kanuti Canyn420162007
Petersville419981998
Nebesna319751975
Toklat320181997
Unalakleet River320242022
Paxson Lake219971996
Kuskulana220232018
Northway220072007
Council220052000
Salmon Lake220072005
Murphy Dome220062002
Kotzebue220232002
Kanuti Lake220242006
Kodiak 2220182018
Galena (Short)220241992
Goodnews Bay220052005
Circle119961996
Birch Lake120162008

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.