BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in California

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in California has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+20%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Shoveler in California. See the full index history below.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.58 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2146.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2146.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.58 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2146.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.590.001.7
20260.590.001.7
20270.580.001.7
20280.580.001.7
20290.580.001.7

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dorris2520191972
Jacumba1019881988
Nubieber620121975
Atwater419821982
Macdoel420161987
Mark West319781978
Iron Gate220042004
Red Bluff219771977
Shafter219881988
Hughson220111971
Likely220181980
Madeline220171997
Clear Lk Res220181972
Cedarville220241974
Coyote220062006
Ravendale219981998
Glenn120001974
Crowder Flat120162016
Westley119791979
Honey Lake120231974
Davis Creek119951995
Yreka120091988
Ingalls119991973
Orland120122000
Fairfax119881988

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.