BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in California

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in California has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-55%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has fallen sharply in California: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in California is projected to rise about 805% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2579.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+805%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2579.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in California is projected to rise about 805% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2579.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.540.001.6
20270.540.001.6
20280.540.001.6
20290.540.001.6
20300.530.001.6

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dorris2520191972
Jacumba1019881988
Nubieber620121975
Atwater419821982
Macdoel420161987
Mark West319781978
Ingalls320251973
Iron Gate220042004
Red Bluff219771977
Shafter219881988
Hughson220111971
Likely220181980
Madeline220251997
Clear Lk Res220181972
Cedarville220241974
Coyote220062006
Ravendale219981998
Glenn120001974
Crowder Flat120162016
Westley119791979
Honey Lake120231974
Davis Creek119951995
Yreka120091988
Orland120122000
Fairfax119881988

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.