BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Wyoming has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+99%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has surged in Wyoming: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Wyoming is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Wyoming is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.000.64
20260.230.000.64
20270.230.000.64
20280.230.000.64
20290.230.000.64

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Schoonover1219861986
Yoder920241986
Seely919951995
Wyarno720181975
Sussex720241995
Rawlins720051988
Kaycee520242024
Seedskadee420032003
Rock River420061992
Harmony320211988
Dubois220122012
Nowood220241988
Natrona219921972
Rozet220172017
Patrick Draw219801980
Mammoth220011991
Moose219821982
Recluse220222004
Alpine219941994
Crowheart219871987
Anchor220162016
Mayoworth220182018
Riverview220221982
Newcastle220221995
Caballa Crk220121999

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.