BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Nebraska has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-60%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has fallen sharply in Nebraska: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±314.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±314.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±314.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.000.92
20270.140.000.92
20280.130.000.91
20290.120.000.90
20300.120.000.90

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Richland819711971
Nenzel620212019
Bartley419791979
Berea420151984
Kennedy320171977
Murray Lake320101997
Tilden320192019
Oglala Nat. Grass.220232000
Pine Ridge220002000
Surprise220142014
Piester Lake220251967
Table220092007
Gordon220251978
Benkelman219981996
Ringgold220052005
Arthur220232019
Crescent Lk220251980
Mullen219901990
Bassett220192019
Kenesaw119791979
Kearney120081971
Paxton120161982
Dalton119781978
Swan Lake120251978
Brady119961996

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.