BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Colorado

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Colorado has risen sharply: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+65%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has risen sharply in Colorado: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Colorado is projected to rise about 87% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±175.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+87%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±175.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Colorado is projected to rise about 87% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±175.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.000.42
20270.170.000.42
20280.170.000.42
20290.170.000.42
20300.170.000.42

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rio Grnds Rs2020091994
Burlington1520152015
Nunn1220082008
Haswell1020061993
Dinosaur820251996
Lamar620232021
Mcphee Res.620192004
Wildhorse L520241998
Lay520042001
Sheridan Lak519951995
Guffey420232016
Flagler420092009
Karval420192005
Tincup420171998
Arsenal 2320222022
Kiowa320181980
Pagosa Spgs319771976
Gordon Creek319961995
Amherst320092007
Neegrande320181997
Last Chance220152000
Moffat219871970
Waverly219951995
Julesburg220211998
Alamosa220251988

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniadelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.