BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-70%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in New Mexico is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.27 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±116.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in New Mexico is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.27 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.33
20250.010.000.32
20260.000.000.32
20270.000.000.32
20280.000.000.32

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grenville1319791977
Cooley Lake1220231973
Laborcita920002000
Maxwell820111996
Wagon Mound619701970
Clovis420182013
Mountainair320192019
San Antonio219751974
Angel Fire219961996
Dulce120142011

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.