BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-72%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±139.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±139.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±139.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.010.000.31
20270.000.000.31
20280.000.000.31
20290.000.000.31
20300.000.000.31

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grenville1319791977
Cooley Lake1220231973
Laborcita920002000
Wagon Mound619701970
Clovis420182013
Mountainair320192019
San Antonio219751974
Angel Fire219961996
Maxwell220251996
Dulce120142011

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.