BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Washington

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Washington has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-24%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Shoveler in Washington. See the full index history below.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±652.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±652.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±652.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.170.000.83
20240.170.000.83
20250.160.000.82
20260.160.000.82
20270.150.000.81

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wilbur3020041984
Brewster1120141977
Columbia Nwr820211992
Nighthawk520192019
Harrington320121984
Wapato319881988
Port Angeles220062006
Chewelah219841984
Moses Lake219991977
Connell219981976
Tonasket220022002
Cusick220081984
Mendota219771977
Keystone220221996
Warm Beach119751975
Turnbull Nwr120082008
Reardan120071996
Twin Lakes119881988
Ewan119991995
Othello119901990
Bay View120021998
Omak Creek120122012
Carnation119961996

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.