BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Nevada

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Nevada has surged: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+154%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has surged in Nevada: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Nevada is projected to rise about 182% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+182%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Nevada is projected to rise about 182% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.000.89
20260.300.000.89
20270.300.000.89
20280.300.000.89
20290.300.000.89

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bald Mtn.520231994
Cortez520231973
Gardnerville420051997
Ash Meadows320232023
Virgin Creek320181995
Dobbin Creek320141998
Gardnerville 2320242018
Ruby Valley 2220212016
Ranchogrande120172017
Ruby Valley119991999
Fallon120121998

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.