Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Nevada
Northern Shoveler in Nevada has surged: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1995.
+154%Since 1995
11Routes In State
26Years
Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in Nevada
long arc increasecomputed index
Northern Shoveler has surged in Nevada: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1995.
Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in Nevada
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Nevada is projected to rise about 182% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+182%Change by 2029
0.30Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.8995% range
±105.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| 2026 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| 2027 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| 2028 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| 2029 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in Nevada
| Bald Mtn. | 5 | 2023 | 1994 |
| Cortez | 5 | 2023 | 1973 |
| Gardnerville | 4 | 2005 | 1997 |
| Ash Meadows | 3 | 2023 | 2023 |
| Virgin Creek | 3 | 2018 | 1995 |
| Dobbin Creek | 3 | 2014 | 1998 |
| Gardnerville 2 | 3 | 2024 | 2018 |
| Ruby Valley 2 | 2 | 2021 | 2016 |
| Ranchogrande | 1 | 2017 | 2017 |
| Ruby Valley | 1 | 1999 | 1999 |
| Fallon | 1 | 2012 | 1998 |
Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.