BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Nevada

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Nevada has surged: up 399% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+399%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has surged in Nevada: up 399% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Nevada is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Nevada is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.420.001.1
20270.430.001.1
20280.430.001.1
20290.440.001.1
20300.440.001.1

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bald Mtn.2120251994
Gardnerville420051997
Ash Meadows320232023
Virgin Creek320181995
Dobbin Creek320141998
Cortez220251973
Ruby Valley 2220212016
Gardnerville 2220252018
Ranchogrande120172017
Ruby Valley119991999
Fallon120121998

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.