BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in South Dakota has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-44%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Shoveler in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in South Dakota is projected to rise about 568% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±198.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+568%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±198.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in South Dakota is projected to rise about 568% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±198.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.003.1
20271.20.003.1
20281.20.003.1
20291.20.003.1
20301.20.003.2

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Forbes1820241967
Broadland1320131969
Long Lake1220191967
Owanka919971967
Gorman920071993
Reva620191991
Englewood620172017
Conde519841967
Maurine520191984
White Lake420111967
Winner420191977
Volunteer419951970
Eagle Butte420132013
Cottonwood320251995
Volga320241967
Roswell320141969
Cedar Pass319991984
S. Pioneer320241995
Indian320222008
Lennox220171967
Tripp220251985
Howard220151979
Pioneer220231992
Raymond220211968
Lane219721969

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.