BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Oregon has surged: up 294% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+294%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has surged in Oregon: up 293% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Oregon is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±302.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±302.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Oregon is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±302.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.003.9
20260.000.003.9
20270.000.003.9
20280.000.003.9
20290.000.003.9

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Merrill1820222002
Warner Vally1820241994
Fish Lake1020231972
Catlow Rim520241998
Princeton419841977
Prospect419981998
Chinchalo420151993
Trout Creek420172017
Buchanan319831983
Malheur Nwr319981988
Blizzard Gap320231984
Flook Lake320062006
Zumwalt220021998
Wedderburn220192019
Modoc Point220011980
Adair220161996
Umatilla219921991
Sheaville220242014
Three Forks120112005
Lone Rock120072004
Summit Pr119851985
Scappoose120162016
Joseph119881988
Dayton119971997
Madras120042004

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.