BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Kansas

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Kansas has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+1%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Shoveler in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Kansas is projected to fall about 77% by 2026 — from 0.86 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-77%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±149.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Kansas is projected to fall about 77% by 2026 — from 0.86 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.210.001.0
20230.210.001.0
20240.210.001.0
20250.200.001.0
20260.200.001.0

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Leoti3520212021
Lakin3019901990
Albert1820191968
Berwet220092009
Plymell220212021
Kanopolis220192019
Wallace219751975
Leoville219771977
Missler119801978
Ruleton119911991
St John120011985
Chapman119791979

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowaminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.