BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Texas

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Texas has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+33%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Shoveler in Texas. See the full index history below.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Texas is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±119.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Texas is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.000.20
20270.040.000.19
20280.040.000.19
20290.040.000.19
20300.040.000.19

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Channing1519801980
Loyola Beach1120081998
Waka1120211975
Raymondville919901990
Dalhart920232006
Cactus820252016
Weinert519881988
Pantex520251977
Childress419941994
Indianola220062006
Post220191989
Floydada220161980
Claytonville220072001
Panhandle220252007
Heidelberg220142014
Kingsville119691969
Catarina119871987
Dougherty120242007
Twichell120001999
Gruver120192019

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.