BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Texas

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Texas has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+27%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Shoveler in Texas. See the full index history below.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±104.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.19
20260.040.000.19
20270.030.000.19
20280.030.000.19
20290.030.000.19

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Channing1519801980
Loyola Beach1120081998
Waka1120211975
Raymondville919901990
Dalhart920232006
Cactus820232016
Weinert519881988
Childress419941994
Pantex420231977
Indianola220062006
Post220191989
Floydada220161980
Claytonville220072001
Panhandle220102007
Heidelberg220142014
Kingsville119691969
Catarina119871987
Dougherty120242007
Twichell120001999
Gruver120192019

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.