BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in North Dakota has surged: up 500% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+500%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has surged in North Dakota: up 500% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in North Dakota is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 8.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 5.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in North Dakota is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 8.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 5.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.34.414
20269.54.514
20279.64.715
20289.84.815
20299.95.015

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild Rose4420241982
Lakota3120091968
Niles3020241989
Horsehead Lk2720241980
Braddock2620221988
Danzig2420141982
Buchanan2120241967
Wimbledon2020241990
Carpio1720231969
Lakota 21720242010
Dickinson1320222010
Sheyenne Lk1320241980
Webster1220241992
Rolla1020241969
Lake George920221967
Loraine820141982
Bowesmont720131974
Forman620241968
Regan620221969
Stanley620221967
Gorham620161982
Douglas Crk620231982
Danzig 2620242019
Parshall520131982
Abercrombie 2520162014

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.