BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Utah

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Utah has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+14%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Shoveler in Utah. See the full index history below.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.27 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±450%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±450%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.27 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±450%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.001.5
20260.290.001.5
20270.280.001.5
20280.280.001.4
20290.270.001.4

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear River2820231992
Neponset Res1220171997
Grizzly Rdge419961996
Snowville420162016
Vernal420171999
M Warner Res420181993
Promontory220102006
Saleratus Cr220182003
Gold Hill220081990
Oak City219811981
Goshen220111998
Woodruff220112007
Randolph220241993
Bicknell220172002
Callao220221998
Dixie Nf119961996
E. Bear Lake120222000
Lynn120211998

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexaswashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.