BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Utah

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Utah has surged: up 128% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+128%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Shoveler has surged in Utah: up 128% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Utah is projected to rise about 155% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+155%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±132.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Utah is projected to rise about 155% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.320.001.5
20270.320.001.5
20280.310.001.5
20290.310.001.5
20300.300.001.5

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neponset Res1220171997
M Warner Res520251993
Grizzly Rdge419961996
Snowville420162016
Vernal420171999
Bear River320251992
Promontory220102006
Saleratus Cr220182003
Gold Hill220081990
Oak City219811981
Goshen220111998
Woodruff220112007
Randolph220241993
Bicknell220172002
Callao220221998
Dixie Nf119961996
E. Bear Lake120222000
Lynn120211998

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexaswashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.