BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Idaho

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Shoveler in Idaho has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-27%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Shoveler Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Shoveler in Idaho. See the full index history below.

Northern Shoveler Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Idaho is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 0.72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-79%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Shoveler in Idaho is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 0.72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.000.53
20260.150.000.52
20270.150.000.52
20280.150.000.52
20290.150.000.52

Northern Shoveler Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Northern Shoveler in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Twin Buttes2119991999
Cedar Hill1220242015
Iron Springs620241992
Preston519921992
Pasadena Val520101993
Blackft Res420181987
Nezperce419691969
Triangle420051996
Kyle Canyon319981986
Naples220221976
Craters219841984
Springfield219921976
Henry219791979
Crane Creek220141992
Featherville220012001
Picabo220092009
Mud Lake220171998
Bates219941990
Dougal Res219961988
Blacks Creek120121986
Ririe120132013

Northern Shoveler Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradodelawareillinoisindianaiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.